High on confidence following a convincing nine-wicket win over Southern Express in the Champions League Twenty20 Qualifiers, Mumbai Indians go into the decisive qualification battle against Northern Knights in another late game at Raipur on Tuesday.

A win against the Knights, who are unbeaten in the Qualifiers so far, would almost ensure a place in the Group Stage for the Mumbai Indians. However, by the time they take the field, the Mumbai Indians would precisely know what they would be expected to do in order to finish in top two and keep their dream of defending the coveted crown.

While the Knights are leading the group with eight points, Mumbai Indians and Lahore Lions are tied with four points apiece, with Mumbai Indians having the advantage of a better net run rate. Southern Express are winless going into Tuesday’s last round of qualification matches at the Shaheed Veer Narayan Stadium.

Here is a look at the possible scenarios:

A: If Lahore Lions lose against Southern Express, a win for Mumbai Indians would be more than enough for the Mumbai Indians. In such a scenario, Mumbai Indians and the Knights would be tied apiece on eight points, while the remaining two teams will have four points each, thus Mumbai Indians will progress without net run rate (NRR) coming into fray.

B: If Lions beat Express, and Mumbai Indians beat Knights, here will be a three-way tie at the top with Knights, Mumbai Indians and Lions finishing with eight points each. Top two teams, based on NRR will make it to the group stage. The equation will be clear before the start of the match in such a case.

C: if Lions and Mumbai Indians both lose, then Knights will qualify at the top and the other three teams will be tied on four points each. In such a case, the team with best NRR among the troika will qualify.

D: If Lions win and Mumbai Indians lose, then Knights and Lions will qualify.

Should it come down to net run-rate, Knights with a net run-rate of +2.684 are the safest among all the four teams. Thanks to their huge victory against Southern Express, Mumbai Indians are in with a good chance to make it to the group stage, should they beat Knights, or at least not lose too badly. A lot, of course, would also depend on Lions’ game against Express and the victory margin, should the former win it. Lions currently have a NRR of -1.496.

The best part for Mumbai Indians is that they are playing the late evening game. So, before going into the game, they will have a clear idea of what needs to be done to qualify for the group stage. And the fact that they had overcome the NRR hurdle during the last league game of the 2013 CLT20 and the IPL 2014, it would make them a confident unit ahead of such an important clash.

Openers Lendl Simmons and Michael Hussey were outstanding against Express on Sunday night, and that makes the job of the rest a lot easier. They are both aggressive openers, and once they get going, any target looks achievable, with the likes of Ambati Rayudu, Kieron Pollard still to bat. Knights have a good pace attack, and it could be an interesting battle between some quality bowlers and some excellent top order batsmen.

Pollard opted to open the bowling with Harbhajan Singh on Sunday, and the move paid off. The bowling unit was exceptional in the second half of the opening match while they did a great job in the first 10 overs on Sunday. They would be keen to get their act together against Northern Knights. Mumbai Indians would also be keen to prove that the sloppy work in the field was nothing but an exception to their reputation of being an outstanding fielding unit.